An additional but important factor that influences investments in housing is the development model of a country at any given period. The type of development model affects not only the level of housing investments but also the role assigned to it. In the 1940s through to the 1960s, development strategy was predominantly based on a neo-classical economic model. The basic assumptions of the model were that economic development was a ‘supply-led' phenomenon and that economic growth would ‘trickle down' to all layers of society, ensuring equal distribution of resources in society. Because this developmental philosophy was built on the premise of rapid economic growth through capital formation, experts paid no attention whatsoever to housing improvement; it was considered a ‘non-productive' investment. Consequently, on the policy agenda of most countries, housing received low priority relative to ‘productive' investment such as industries, roads and power plants. By the beginning of the 1970s, however, the development model shifted emphasis from physical capital development to human capital improvement and the provision of basic needs. Under this model, housing attracted serious investment considerations from governments and international development institutions (including the World Bank) because it was considered as a basic ‘human right', with strong potential to contribute to human development and labour productivity. Similar declarations were made in the 1996 UN-Habitat Agenda. Under the basic need development model, housing programmes were seen as an essential part of the economic and social welfare development process.
Since the early 1980s, when most developing countries began to shift to the market system, the dimensions and significance of the housing sector have been reassessed. In particular, its macroeconomic impacts have been stressed, with calls for more financial investments into the sector, albeit private capital investments. Through various country-based case studies, the shift to the market system has led to reform of policies, institutions and regulations; in particular, government policies have developed a wider conception of housing and a greater understanding of the links between housing and various sectors of national economies. The significance of this evolution of the economic development model for analysing the relations between housing and economic development is critical. Different economic models saw changes in the way housing is conceptualized, the role assigned to it and the level of financial investments into the sector. An analysis of the relationships between housing and economic development, therefore, calls for critical attention to the economic development models of various nations and regions.
One of the most important subsets of interdependence relates to the stages of economic development. Allocation of housing resources varies with different stages of economic development, suggesting that the levels and nature of returns will vary according to economic stage. It has been suggested that expenditure on housing tends to lag behind in countries at early stages of development and then catch up. That is, richer countries tend to spend more in absolute terms and they also devote a greater share of their national income to housing and construction activities than do poor countries. However, recent studies show that poor people in developing countries spend up to 40 per cent of their household income on rent, making the housing sector an important area of income generation. Also, the size, growth rate and population composition significantly shape the levels of housing investments as well as the nature of housing type. For instance, there are differences in the size of population and levels of urbanization throughout much of the developing world and transition economies, suggesting that the demand for housing finance to achieve efficient housing investment will differ. In addition, the nature of housing system is a reflection of the level of economic development. While a large part of the developing world is dominated by informal housing and small-scale operators, large-scale builders and transnational companies constitute the major players in transition and emerging economies (for example, Hong Kong, South Korea and Thailand).
The broad ideological swings and shifts that occur from time to time are an important aspect of the influence on housing investments and policies. It is pointed out that the levels and source of housing finance as well as views about housing vary distinctly between centrally planned economies and market systems. In centrally planned economies, housing is typically viewed as a social good, the burden of provision of which lies with the state. As a result, public housing is the dominant form of housing provision (for example in the former socialist state of China). Under such a system, housing investment is often considered as spending that does not generate return and financial allocation is often influenced more by political rather than by economic goals. As opposed to centrally planned economies, housing markets in open market economies are seen as integral to development and economic growth strategies. Rather than state regulations, housing development and associated services are regulated by market mechanisms, with home-ownership being a major feature of the system. Because commercialization and privatization are major tenets of open market systems, the housing system is better able to mobilize funds for housing development and for economic development than in a planned economy, at least for those who can afford to pay.
Indeed, since the introduction of economic reform policies, in transition economies the housing markets have seen the growth of foreign and domestic capital at an astonishing pace, suggesting that impacts of housing markets on economic development and growth are more significant in a market-based system than in centrally planned economies. Overall, because the level and sources of housing finance depend on the political and economic system, any analysis of the relationships between housing and economic development must carefully take into account the dynamic roles of such factors.
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1. How to understand housing and economic development
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